Horn Lake, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

291
FXUS64 KMEG 112314
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
614 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- A warming trend continues with high temperatures reaching the
  mid-80s through Sunday and upper 80s by the middle of next week,
  potentially flirting with record highs.

- Medium chance for critical fire weather conditions on Sunday
  across northern portions of the region, warranting a Rangeland
  Fire Danger Statement.

- The weather pattern will become unsettled into next week with
  shower and thunderstorm chances increasing especially north of
  I-40.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As of 10 AM, temperatures have generally warmed into the mid 70s
across most of the area. A stalled frontal boundary is nearly
parallel to the I-40 corridor with abundant cloud cover on the
cool side of the boundary, resulting in temperatures to lag
behind and reside in the 60s. This front is anticipated to
retreat back to the north in the coming hours and warm
temperatures into the 80s this afternoon.

Temperatures will warm once again on Sunday and low level
moisture dwindles as the warm front pulls farther away from the
region. There is a medium chance of critical fire weather
conditions being met across northern portions of the region as
gusty winds ramp up during the late morning into afternoon. Joint
probabilities of RH values at or below 25% as well as 20ft winds
15 mph or greater are low to medium through the day tomorrow.
Ongoing and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels are an
increasing level of concern. A Fire Weather Watch was considered,
but given uncertainty in RH and windspeeds, opted to hold off on
the watch. Confidence is high in conditions warranting a
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for tomorrow, but not high enough
for a watch.

Sunday night into Monday morning is when a pattern shift will
emerge. Surface high pressure will begin to break down as a
surface low develops over the Central Plains. Modest moisture is
anticipated to develop ahead of this surface low which will bring
low to medium (15-40%) PoPs to the forecast. The higher end of
PoPs is mostly confined to areas along and west of the
Mississippi River and north of I-40. These low end rain chances
will meander through the week, for the same area, as moisture
plume rides on the backside of the ridge axis. By the latter half
of the week, the main trough axis and attendant front begin to
traverse. Rain chances will increase for areas south of I-
40 slightly on Thursday with highest chances into next weekend
ahead of a cold front. Aside from rain chances, the middle to end
of next week looks to be unseasonably warm with high temperatures
flirting with records. Areas along and south of I-40 have the
highest chances of tying or breaking temperature records as
temperatures warm into the upper 80s. From the NBM, there is low
to medium chances from Tuesday onwards of high temperatures
exceeding 90 degrees. While confidence is low in beneficial QPF
until very late in the forecast period, confidence continues to
increase for very warm temperatures to manifest over the next
several days.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Gusty conditions will develop across the Mid-South on Sunday with
the highest gusts ranging from 25-30 kts. Winds will decrease
slightly around 00Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Dry weather will persist through the weekend. 20ft winds will
pick up, and temperatures will warm, on Sunday. This could result
in RH values dipping below 30% during the afternoon. Confidence
is medium in RH values dipping as low as 25%, but confidence is
low in RH falling below 25%. An RFD is anticipated to be issued
for Sunday. Moisture influx will return on Monday and increase RH
values well above 30% and wetting rain chances return.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS